The Crisis of Political Capital and Marcos Jr.’s Waning Legitimacy

Political legitimacy is not derived from brute force or inherited status; it is contingent on public trust, a commodity that, once depleted, is nearly impossible to recover. The latest opinion polls suggest that President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. is rapidly exhausting this essential resource. Reports indicate that his approval rating has plummeted to unprecedented lows, with some suggesting a catastrophic decline into single digits. This is not merely a statistical aberration—it is a profound indictment of his administration.

For context, no Filipino president in the post-Marcos era has ever experienced such a precipitous collapse in public approval. Historically, even the most controversial leaders have maintained a baseline level of support, often bolstered by patronage networks, propaganda mechanisms, and the inertia of entrenched political structures. That Marcos Jr. has failed to sustain even this artificial cushion speaks volumes about the growing public disillusionment.

Approval Ratings as a Measure of Political Capital

Approval ratings are not just vanity metrics for political elites; they are a measure of political capital—the currency that enables governance. A leader with high approval can push through policy initiatives, command legislative obedience, and project authority both domestically and internationally. A leader with single-digit approval, by contrast, is politically bankrupt.

This has profound implications. Political capital determines whether a president is feared or ignored, whether government institutions respond to their directives or begin hedging their bets on alternative power centers. It is here that we must analyze the widening disparity between Marcos Jr. and his vice president, Sara Duterte, whose approval ratings reportedly remain significantly higher. The Duterte political machine, despite its own decline, appears to be the primary beneficiary of Marcos Jr.’s unraveling.

The Anatomy of Political Decline

Why has Marcos Jr.’s legitimacy eroded so dramatically? The reasons are manifold and interconnected:

1. Economic Hardship and Perceived Incompetence – Inflation, stagnant wages, and the administration’s failure to address systemic inequality have created widespread economic anxiety. Rather than addressing these issues with structural solutions, the administration has relied on rhetoric and superficial policies.

2. Historical Revisionism Colliding with Reality – The Marcos name was rehabilitated through decades of disinformation, but reality has caught up. The promise of a "golden age" under Marcosian rule has proven to be a mirage, and the public—particularly the younger generation—is beginning to recognize the deception.

3. Political Infighting and Weak Governance – The administration has been unable to consolidate its control, with factions within the ruling elite maneuvering against each other. The perception that Marcos Jr. is a weak and ineffectual leader has only deepened his political woes.

4. Corruption and the Persistence of Dynastic Politics – The government remains a playground for oligarchs and political dynasties. Corruption scandals, nepotistic appointments, and crony capitalism have reinforced the notion that this administration serves the interests of the elite rather than the broader population.

What Comes Next?

A leader with no political capital cannot effectively govern. This is the inescapable reality facing Marcos Jr. If the rumors of an embargoed poll showing single-digit approval prove accurate, then his presidency is functionally over—at least in terms of meaningful authority. What remains is the question of whether the state apparatus will continue to prop him up or whether power will gradually shift to other forces, such as the Duterte bloc or the military establishment.

More fundamentally, the collapse of Marcos Jr.’s approval rating underscores a larger truth: the Philippine political system remains captive to dynastic rule, incapable of producing leaders with genuine democratic legitimacy. As long as political power is inherited rather than earned, and as long as the system serves the elite rather than the people, disillusionment will only deepen.

The real question is not whether Marcos Jr. can recover from this crisis—history suggests he cannot. The real question is whether the Filipino people will tolerate yet another cycle of elite misrule or whether this moment of crisis will finally lead to a demand for systemic change.